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Unconventional Yearbook 2018

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Page 98 of 107 | January 2018 | 97 PRODUCTION FORECAST | 2018 UNCONVENTIONAL YEARBOOK I t is common knowledge that the renaissance in U.S. oil and gas is due to success in develop- ing unconventional resources economically. Not known as widely is that solutions for arriving at economically viable results vary greatly across and within plays. Much credit goes to the entre- preneurial spirit of the independent E&P and the oilfi eld service sector and the thousands of people who work with them for achieving the unthink- able. Looking at our forecast, we are reminded that innovation and experimentation remain key if our prognostications are to have any chance of becom- ing reality. Without further adieu, let us turn to this year's forecast. Annual average production from Lower 48 unconventional sources is projected to grow by 18% versus 2017, averaging 16.6 MMboe per day. Accelerating growth in the Permian is the driving force behind this rapid growth. Stratas estimates total unconventional production from the Permian will average about 3.7 MMboe/d in 2018, up from 2.5 MMboe/d in 2017. So, what makes the Permian special? In our opinion, it has much to do about options. Oper- ators have many options in the Permian due to "stacked" pays. Stacked pay is one of the buzzwords to take over watercooler discussions in recent years. The term simply refers to an area having many lay- In the Shale Spotlight The Permian Basin is expected to maintain a fi rm hold on the industry's focus in 2018. By Stephen G. Beck, Senior Director, Upstream, Stratas Advisors 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 May-12 Dec-12 Jul-13 Feb-14 Sep-14 Apr-15 Nov-15 Jun-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Mar-18 Oct-18 May-19 Dec-19 Jul-20 Feb-21 Sep-21 Apr-22 Nov-22 Jun-23 Jan-24 Aug-24 Mar-25 Oct-25 May-26 Dec-26 Jul-27 Feb-28 Sep-28 Apr-29 Nov-29 Jun-30 Daily Production (Thous. Boe) Permian Appalachia Midcontinent Eagle Ford Bakken Rockies Other Lower-48 Total Unconventional Production Estimate (All data and images courtesy of Stratas Advisors)

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