2018 Offshore Technology Yearbook

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8 | December 2017 | 2018 OFFSHORE TECHNOLOGY YEARBOOK | PRODUCTION OUTLOOK Bonga South West-Aparo, Chevron's Nsiko develop- ment, Eni's Zabazaba-Etan, and ExxonMobil's Bosi Field and smaller satellite projects in the Uge Field complex. In Angola those projects include Maersk Oil's Chissonga; Chevron's Negage and Lucapa fields and Greater Longui development; and Cobalt's Cameia project, which has been halted because the company is seeking to exit Angola entirely. However, companies keep spending on major deepwater projects that entered the construc- tion stage before the oil price collapse. Those developments include Tullow Oil's Twene- boa-Enyenra-Ntomme development, which came onstream in August 2016; ENI's Block 15/06 East- ern Hub development, which was sanctioned in 2013 and started first oil in February 2017; Total's Kaombo project, which was sanctioned in April 2014 with an onstream date of 2018; and the Egina development, which was sanctioned in 2013 and is expected to be onstream in 2018. Like offshore developments elsewhere around the globe, the long development cycle and intensive cap- ital expenses required for deepwater projects make them fairly immune to spending cuts once they have reached a final investment decision and have started investing large amounts of money. As a result, in the short term—within two to three years—the industry will not see much of an impact from the price col- lapse on oil and gas production supply from deepwa- ter developments because the ongoing projects will get to the finish line without much interruption. The supply impact will be after 2019 and be intensified around 2021, when the deferred future development projects would have come onstream. Stratas Advisors expects that nearly 600 Mbbl/d of oil production from deepwater West Africa will be deferred from around 2021 to beyond 2023. The total oil production capacity of those deferred proj- ects will be about 1 MMbbl/d. Russia and CIS Azerbaijan and Russia have been the top two offshore producers in the Russia and CIS region over the last five years. Offshore oil production in the region has grown from about 1.2 MMbbl/d in 2012 to about 1.7 MMbbl/d in 2017, contributed mostly from Russia and Kazakhstan (Figure 7). Starting later 2016, when Kazakhstan's Caspian shallow-water field Kashagan resumed production, the field will ramp up and sig- nificantly power the region's supply of offshore oil by 370 Mbbl/d at peak in Phase 1. Phase 2 is expected to add an additional 450 Mbbl/d in future development before the end of the decade. All of the offshore pro- duction from the region is from shallow water. Asia-Pacific Offshore oil production accounted for about 40% (3.2 MMbbl/d) of the total in Asia-Pacific over the past five years. China, Malaysia and India are the top offshore oil producers in the region with a com- bined production of about 1.9 MMbbl/d (Figure 8), and most of the region's offshore production (about 90%) comes from shallow water. Not being an offshore growth frontier in oil, the region is expected to continue to play an insignificant role in offshore production by 2025 and exhibit a mild growth rate of less than 1% on average annually. FIGURE 7. Russia and CIS Offshore Oil Production by Country 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 MBbl/d RUSSIA AZERBAIJAN KAZAKHSTAN TURKMENISTAN REST OF RUSSIA & CIS FIGURE 8. Asia-Pacific Offshore Oil Production by Country 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 MBbl/d AUSTRALIA CHINA INDIA INDONESIA MALAYSIA THAILAND VIETNAM REST OF ASIA-PACIFIC

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