2018 Offshore Technology Yearbook

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6 | December 2017 | 2018 OFFSHORE TECHNOLOGY YEARBOOK | PRODUCTION OUTLOOK end of the decade, and that fi gure is expected to continue to climb to 2.8 MMbbl/d by 2025. Even considering the high risks associated with the devel- opments, the risked output could still easily reach 1.8 MMbbl/d in 2020 and 2.3 MMbbl/d in 2025. In Mexico shallow water accounts for more than 75% of Mexico's total oil production. Deep and ultradeepwater E&P are still in their infancy stages. No commercial oil will be produced from deep and ultradeep water until 2023, when increased foreign investment and advanced technology bring hydrocarbons onstream. However, production increases from these new developments will be too marginal to counter the production decline from shallow-water fi elds. Europe About 90% (2.7 MMbbl/d) of European oil came from offshore fi elds in the North Sea and the Nor- wegian Sea in the past fi ve years, with most of them in shallow water. Norway and the U.K. are the two main producers in the region (Figure 5), contribut- ing about 2.46 MMbbl/d (88%) of the total offshore oil output. Norway's oil production had been recently increasing, but the country will not post any new gains until its giant Johan Sverdrup development comes online. Phase 1 is planned to start up in 2019. Phase 2 is expected to start up by 2022. These two phases will generate an incremental 500 Mbbl/d at peak production rates. There are some smaller projects that will at least mitigate the decline over the next few years. For example, Total's Martin Linge development is scheduled to come onstream in 2018 and Johan Castberg in 2021. Oil production in the U.K. had been declining rapidly for more than 15 years as North Sea oil fi elds matured. However, new projects that had been in development due to support from high prices will help the country reverse the trend in the next couple of years. Among the projects are Clair Ridge, which is expected to start production in 2018 and contribute more than 100 Mbbl/d at peak; Schiehallion Quad 204, which started fi rst oil in early 2017 and will add about 125 Mbbl/d; and the Mariner, Catcher and Kraken fi eld devel- opments combined are expected to produce 140 Mbbl/d at peak starting from 2017 and 2018. But in the long term (post 2020), the country's production is expected to continue to decline as most of its North Sea fi elds reach the end of their production cycles. New sources are uncertain and beyond reach within 10 years. Africa In the past fi ve years Africa has produced about 5 MMbbl/d of oil from offshore fi elds, which is about 60% of the continent's total output. Nigeria and Angola are the top offshore producers with a combined production of about 3.7 MMbbl/d (Fig- ure 6). Deep water has been the main producing area of offshore Africa and accounts for 60% (2.9 MMbbl/d) of the total offshore production. The downturn has depressed investment in future offshore oil and gas projects. In Nigeria projects that are on hold or are being deferred include Shell's FIGURE 5. Europe Offshore Oil Production by Country 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 MBbl/d U.K. NORWAY REST OF EUROPE FIGURE 6. Africa Offshore Oil Production by Country 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 MBbl/d ANGOLA NIGERIA EGYPT REST OF AFRICA

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