Playbooks

2018 Offshore Technology Yearbook

Issue link: http://yearbook.epmag.com/i/903538

Contents of this Issue

Navigation

Page 3 of 55

2 | December 2017 | hartenergy.com Global Offshore Oil Production Outlook to 2025 2018 OFFSHORE TECHNOLOGY YEARBOOK | PRODUCTION OUTLOOK The offshore industry is expected to continue to grow in the next several years due to new developments and fi eld expansions. By Shuqiang Feng, Stratas Advisors (All data and charts courtesy of Stratas Advisors) FIGURE 1. Global Offshore Oil Production by Region 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 MMBbl/d AFRICA LATIN AMERICA ASIA-PACIFIC NORTH AMERICA EUROPE MIDDLE EAST RUSSIA & CIS FIGURE 2. Global Offshore Oil Production by Water Depth 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 MMBbl/d SHALLOW DEEP ULTRA DEEP G lobal offshore has contributed about 25 MMbbl/d of oil production since 2012, which accounts for about 30% of the global total. The Mid- dle East, Africa and Latin America have been the top three regions in offshore oil production with com- bined production of about 15.5 MMbbl/d, or about two-thirds of the global total (Figure 1). About 70% of offshore production (about 17.7 MMbbl/d) has been produced from shallow water (water depth less than 1,000 ft). Ultradeep water (water depth greater than 5,000 ft) has emerged as the new production growth frontier as production from both shallow water and deep water (deeper than 1,000 ft but less than 5,000 ft) has been fl attened (Figure 2). With the tailwind momentum of the long off- shore investment cycles, offshore is expected to con- tinue to grow at a speed of about 2% to 4% annually in the next several years to the end of the decade. The growth will be driven by new developments and fi eld expansions in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), Bra- zil presalt, Africa and the Persian Gulf. Investment cuts made by the industry on offshore investments in the past couple of years can only slow down off- shore production growth starting in 2022, when the annual growth rate will start to drop and reach 0.6% by 2025. Stratas Advisors currently expects oil prices to reach a minimum threshold for justifying new developments around 2019 to 2020. At that time Stratas Advisors forecasts that companies will start investing offshore again, especially in the ultradeep water. However, new investment cycles will take at least three to fi ve years, and new production will not come online until about 2023 to 2025.

Articles in this issue

Links on this page

Archives of this issue

view archives of Playbooks - 2018 Offshore Technology Yearbook