Playbooks Supplements

Scoop-Stack Playbook 2017

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SCOOP/STACK: PRODUCTION FORECAST 50 | September 2017 | hartenergy.com average footage drilled per well has increased nearly 4,000 ft over the company's time line while impact on well performance has more than tripled. Further analysis of footage drilled vs. well per- formance now normalized by producing forma- tion reveals the top producing formation targets for operators: Woodford, Mississipian and Hunton (Figure 12). In the Woodford average footage drilled has increased by more than 5,000 ft—the average well length in 2016 increased to 19,457 ft—with well per- formance tripling. Mississippian analysis shows aver- age footage drilled per well increased by 3,200 ft over TGS' time line—the average well length increased to 16,120 ft—while well performance improved a whop- ping five times over earlier, shorter-length wells. In the Hunton there is a smaller dataset of horizon- tal producing wells to analyze and the recognized increase in footage drilled and well performance is a more current phenomenon. The major increase in length and performance transpires moving from 2015 to 2016. Hunton doesn't show the more grad- ual increase as the Woodford and Mississippian results. However, as this is a much smaller sample size, TGS continues to analyze these recent trends going forward to see if the 2016 increases are main- tained in 2017 and beyond as the Hunton continues to be developed horizontally. Average EURs by formation TGS' final analysis will continue to narrow the scope and explore EURs within the play down to the pro- ducing formation (Figure 13). To effectively do this, it is important TGS conditions the data from its raw form. Historical monthly production data used in production forecast model originate, as reported 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Woodford EUR (bbl) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Miss EUR (bbl) Hunton EUR (bbl) Woodford MD (ft) Miss MD (ft) Hunton MD (ft) 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Footage Drilled vs. EUR by Year FIGURE 12. The left Y-axis represents EUR (bbl) and the right Y-axis represents footage drilled (ft). 1200000 1100000 1000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 13,441 360,823 14,734 454,698 16,069 506,086 15,588 338,460 16,413 478,841 15,092 474,804 15,101 463,810 16,888 789,583 17,258 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 1,167,714 FIGURE 11. Horizontal Wells in Scoop/Stack - Average Footage Drilled vs. EUR by Year

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