Playbooks Supplements

Scoop-Stack Playbook 2017

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SCOOP/STACK: PRODUCTION FORECAST | September 2017 | 43 The science of forecasting depends on the ability to correctly categorize local nomenclature, nick- names, abbreviations and handling entry errors such as spelling mistakes. In terms of data useful for forecasting, the TGS database accesses reservoir fluid data vintage 1973; however, in today's domain the data TGS requires is well-based production from horizontals that it can calibrate—typically, relevant data are from the past 10 years. In this chapter, TGS introduces advances to forecasting algorithms, in particular for lease reporting states such as Texas and Oklahoma. The company illustrates some of the many spatial and temporal relationships the TGS datasets can pro- vide and highlights some of the extensive basin analytic capabilities. This study uses a select well dataset covering the Scoop/Stack. The primary targets the data support include the generic Mississippian sys- tem, the Meramec group, the Devonian Wood- ford and Silurian Hunton formations as well as data in the Oswego, Springer and numerous Pennsylvanian reservoirs. As a brief overview, the Scoop multizone play trend extends about 200 miles north-south in central Oklahoma, along the eastern edge of the Anadarko Basin corresponding to one of the most prolific conventional oil production areas on the continent. Numerous historic giant (more than 100 MMbbl) oil fields have been discovered along this trend. It's interesting to look back at the long and col- orful history of exploration here. Most accounts agree the Oklahoma oil boom began around Bar- tlesville near the turn of the 20th century, but the first series of major discoveries occurred between 1926 and 1928, including the Oklahoma City Field in 1928. The field is a huge anticlinal structure with production initially from the Arbuckle Lime- stone and ultimately from the Basal Oil Creek sand and the Ordovician Wilcox sand. The Okla- homa City field produced more than 1 Bbbl. From the late '20s through the war years when demand skyrocketed, numerous giants were discovered, including the Ringwood and West Edmond Field, which was located using reflection seismic. In 1947 a cluster of fields termed the Golden Trend were discovered in south Oklahoma, and by the mid-1950s the string of major discovery activity was waning with the Sooner Trend. By this time the Woodford Shale—with naturally fractured chert zones—was one of the primary targets as well as the tight Mississippian carbonates interbedded with marls and chert. Fast forward to present and the Scoop and Stack are recognized as a light oil and gas liquids trend along the western flank of the historic Sooner Trend, straddling the edge of the overpressured corridor that extends downdip into the basin and exploiting many of the same historic producing zones. There are dozens of reservoir zones in the Scoop/ Stack extending through the Mississippian system and the Woodford and Hunton formations. The ongoing effort and objective is to subdivide the Mississippian system for production allocation using completion data, perf information and well reports, and confirm production from the Ches- ter, Sycamore, Meramec, Osage and possibly more detailed intervals. Production forecast model In this analysis, TGS utilizes and leverages its newly released Production Forecast Database. This data- base is a library of every well in the U.S. containing both a monthly production projection and EUR value for all active wells. The forecast database com- bined with the Longbow desktop visualization tool provides the backbone of the analysis and results contained within this report. TGS Production Forecast creates projections of producing oil and gas data streams, which allow the calculation of EURs and other values needed to perform well, field and basin evaluations. The projection of oil and gas data can be challenging because of the variety of reservoir and outside influences that can change producing trends. Pro- duction Forecast is designed to recognize produc- tion variations and to forecast future production based on the best available data, accomplishing this through proprietary algorithms and heuristic rule- based decisions. The forecast engine leverages the TGS Well Performance Database of monthly well produc- tion volumes to create forward curves for all active

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