Playbooks Supplements

Scoop-Stack Playbook 2017

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SCOOP/STACK: PRODUCTION FORECAST 42 | September 2017 | O klahoma is one of the most mature oil- and gas-producing states, yet the industry con- tinues to innovate and make headlines with new investment opportunities. As the industry focuses on resource plays, advances in drilling and comple- tion technologies along with the accumulated geo- science knowledge continue to tighten constraints on technical uncertainties. The science of running risk-based economics has migrated to a broader matrix of engineering sensitivities focused on op- timizing operational investments. Funda- mental to calibrating these complex eco- nomics is the accu- racy and availability of well performance d a t a f o r f o r e c a s t models. Investment decisions continue to pivot on the context that forecasting pro- vides in terms of ul- timate recoveries and breakeven points. Operators are often able to forecast with confidence using pro- prietary data in their operating area but industry investors looking along trends and assessing new and unfamiliar opportu- nities must often work on comparison forecasts with public data. State production recording and databases continue to improve; however, they can be notoriously incomplete and ambiguous. In part, this is due to a lack of standardization of oil and gas reporting procedures and requirements. As the industry improves forecasting algorithms, produc- tion volume data can be qualified more efficiently but nomenclature used to describe and isolate the zones(s) of production continues to be a challenge. Advances in forecasting algorithms facilitate an EUR analysis of the last 10 years of well completions. Production Forecasting in the Scoop/Stack Play By Ted Mirenda and James Keay Contributing Editors A generalized extent of the Anadarko Basin with Nemaha and Wichita uplifts bounding the east and south flanks is shown. The Scoop/Stack trend in central Oklahoma is adjacent to and overlaps some of Oklahoma's most famous giant fields, shown in green. Faults (gray lines) are modified from Oklahoma Geological Survey shapefiles. (All images courtesy of TGS)

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