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Scoop-Stack Playbook 2017

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SCOOP/STACK: PRODUCTION FORECAST 40 | September 2017 | "When we started looking at some of these tech- nologies maybe five years ago, it seemed 20 fractur- ing stages was a lot," Freedonia's Carnovale said. "Now 40 is relatively common, and it is economical to do that. The increase in production more than offsets the cost." This is different from 2008-2009 when the Haynesville came online, Chu said. "Then it was slickwell completions and ceramic proppant." This has led to challenges in completions logis- tics for sand and the emergence of sand sources in areas outside Wisconsin, which produces Northern White sand. Now, operators are trying Texas Brown Sand to lower logistics costs. "What they've found so far is that it's just as good, and the cost of moving it is lower," Chu said. Production: then and now Analysts have agreed that these plays have a lot of life left. "In the Scoop, we have a pretty good handle on what the wells are capable of and what operators are likely to get," Kugler said. "There seems to be upside remaining, and activity is on an upward path. We're still figuring things out in the Stack, but it too is on an upward path," he reported, noting that both plays are profitable at about $45/bbl. The amount of produced gas in these plays is significant, Kugler said, and with a comeback in the gas price from a year and a half ago, gas is very profitable at $3/MMcf. "Some operators are getting 4 Bcf or 5 Bcf out of these wells," he said. "That's a lot of revenue. "When oil prices crashed, all of the plays in the U.S. dramatically decreased their rig counts," he said. "The Stack was the only play increasing rig counts throughout the downturn." According to Chu, the reason is that operators had adopted horizontal drilling in an overpressured Mississippian layer in the Stack that was difficult and therefore uneconomic to drill vertically. "The overpressure impeded vertical drilling by requiring too many casing strings but made for a great hori- zontal play. We saw a ramp-up by Devon and Con- tinental. It was on the cusp of being developed at the edge of the downturn." Counter to the retreat Proppant Intensity vs. Three-month boe A map of the region illustrates how proppant intensity has increased in relation to production. (Data courtesy of Drillinginfo)

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